User blog:Cfp3157/The 91st Academy Awards
Come one, come all; it is finally time for the 91st Academy Awards to commence! After two years where Oscar decided to pick some of its most diverse and eclectic choices in its history, the Academy has decided to double down on changes by making adjustments to rules and the ceremony itself to try and bring back viewers. With one more year of cinematic history officially down in the records, it's time for Beast and Cfp to give their thoughts leading up to the big night. The Ceremony For the first time since 1989, the Oscars will not be having a host this year. Initially, Kevin Hart had been selected; however, due to controversy surrounding past homophobic tweets, Hart has stepped down and the Academy has decided to simply not replace him. In addition, there have been significant changes to the ceremony itself, most notable being the decision to reward some categories during commercial breaks and to remove several song contenders from performing all to cut time. Cfp's Thoughts Firstly, Kevin Hart being replaced is a very mixed bag for me personally. On one hand, Hart's not a very funny comedian and the idea of his loud, brass, and crude humor corrupting the Dolby theater isn't appealing to me. However, the reason for his firing and his response are both equally absurd. Kevin Hart should apologize for his past behavior, but it's also ultimately irrelevant and the Academy shouldn't have caved to mobs that demanded his firing without utilizing it as a chance for educating others. Secondly, I'm downright furious about the changes to this ceremony. The Oscars are the one night of the year where achievements in filmmaking are honored. Not just the star actors, or how much money they made, or the scripts, but the filmmaking itself. That includes sound; that includes cinematographers; that includes animators and editors and composers and all the branches that are being reduced to commercials for their recognition. These are the people performing and organizing the thankless jobs of the industry that make movies possible to begin with! It's a night to celebrate film, so why on earth are we not actually celebrate the ones who help to make it? Also, it's dumb that we're restricting only the two frontrunners of Best Original Song to perform. It's not like Ke$ha and Emily Blunt aren't popular. Be efficient; have Blunt perform "The Place Where Lost Things Go" during the In Memoriam, and Ke$ha perform "I'll Fight" during one of the inspirational monologues they do every year. This entire fiasco is just infuriating. Beast's Thoughts In an increasingly online world, rule #1 of this kind of thing should be: delete your tweets. Seriously, if you're a big star, ask your PR if you think you've got any bad tweets, then delete them. Hart being fired was dumb and another example of a studio panicking in the face of controversy, but his response (a blind, all-too-familiar refusal to acknowledge any wrongdoing) was bizarre in it's own right in an increasingly grim age of badly behaving public figures attempting to make martyrs of themselves. Anyway, if we can be spared an opening monologue, more power to the Oscars for cutting one of the objectively most painful parts of every ceremony. Speaking of skipping for time, why is it that this year's Oscars are apparently run by people who don't enjoy the Oscars? Skipping several tech categories (which are yet to be determined outside of Cinematography) effectively lets everyone know that those jobs apparently don't matter in the grander scale of things. While the Academy has blissfully reversed it's decision on Original Song (presumably after seeing my dozens of angry #BringBackNelson tweets), it's still disappointing to see a blatant attempt to fix something that really wasn't entirely broken. Best Lead Actor The nominees are... *Christian Bale - Vice *Bradley Cooper - A Star is Born *Willem Dafoe - At Eternity's Gate *Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody *Viggo Mortensen - Green Book Cfp's Thoughts *'Prediction:' This is a deceptively close race. On one side, Christian Bale is backing the precursor heat for his potential second Oscar. He has Critics' Choice, one of the Golden Globes, and the most critics prizes outside the not nominated Ethan Hawke. However, Rami Malek makes for a compelling case to win with the other Golden Globe, the SAG Award, and a couple of X-Factors in his favor. He's a chance to reward a divisive film that the Academy may like, he currently doesn't have an Oscar unlike Bale, and he's got the more dynamic part that the Academy may be more willing to reward. Unless Bale takes BAFTA, which may not even happen despite his not having one, Malek's got a decent enough lead to edge ahead. *'Preference:' While Malek and Bale would both be worthy winners in any other year, what Bradley Cooper managed to accomplish is nothing short of decade-defining work. His soul and pain buries itself into Jackson Maine, a character that allows Cooper to use every tool in his kit to masterful perfection. Physical, expressive acting as he sings is dual wielded with the soulful introspection of a simple glance or smile, but is undeniable and unchangeable is that Bradley Cooper has given viewers the greatest performance of this decade. *'Snubbed:' Overall the film has received a lack of fire that it deserves, but no aspect has been shunned more egregiously than Ryan Gosling and his piercing, understated work in First Man. In a varied and long career Gosling has utilized all his talents and obstacles to give viewers a humanizing portrayal of someone larger than life. His version of Neil Armstrong is subdued, emotional, and introverted, revealing so much to the audience and yet so little about the man. Beast's Thoughts *'Prediction': It appears that even a damaging set of allegations surrounding the film's director and some unfortunate comments of ignorance can't slow down Rami Malek, who has effectively carried Bohemian Rhapsody through awards season. With a Golden Globe and the crucial SAG award under his belt, this very much feels like Malek's statue to lose, even with a transformative turn from Christian Bale waiting in the wings. *'Preference': Bradley Cooper's turn as Jackson Maine is a career-best turn, a mesmerizing mixture of rock star swagger and inner sadness played with a combination of body language, genuine emotion, and charming chemistry. It really feels like watching someone lay his soul bare for all to see, and in a fair year, he'd be able to take this home no question, but things aren't really fair this year, are they? *'Snubbed': In a year all about showy physical changes and flashy makeup work, perhaps the most impressive transformation was watching Ethan Hawke's Reverend Toller sense of faith and basic sanity corrode spectacularly. Hawke's performance is First Reformed is another career-best turn, and you can practically feel the crushing weight of the world on his shoulders grow heavier with every scene, leaving you watching through your fingers as he slowly comes more and more unbound. Best Lead Actress The nominees are... *Yalitza Aparicio - Roma *Glenn Close - The Wife *Olivia Colman - The Favourite *Lady Gaga - A Star is Born *Melissa McCarthy - Can You Ever Forgive Me? Cfp's Thoughts *'Prediction:' One of the best races to call on the night, Glenn Close will finally receive an Oscar after the three decades of amazing performances she has given audiences. It's a career win, but she's also dominated besides that with SAG, the Golden Globe, and a tie at Critics Choice cementing her campaign. Although a career win, hardly one to be mad about. *'Preference:' In a truly astounding breakthrough, Yalitza Aparicio delivers and carries Roma in a breathtaking fashion. One of the rare moments where serving as a blank canvas actually adds to the performance rather than crutch on it, Yalitza's nomination was always the hurdle but is breathtakingly beautiful all the same. *'Snubbed:' The Academy did one of the greatest actresses of the current age dirty when they refused to nominate Emily Blunt for her masterful recreation in Mary Poppins Returns. She not only provides the singing chops and grace that is iconic with the character, but undeniably surpasses the expectations with her emotionally gripping work. Plus, my entire Lead Actress ballot missed out so I'll just list them again; Amandla Stenburg, Kathryn Hahn, Constance Wu, and choice 1.2 Toni Colette. Beast's Thoughts *'Prediction:' I'm not entirely convinced The Wife is a real movie so much as it is a propaganda campaign to ensure that Glenn Close finally wins her Oscar, and with all the big shows behind her I just don't see anything stopping her now. It's a career oscar at it's most blatant, but it will be nice to see a veteran pull a win. *'Preference:' Two stellar breakout performances to choose from here, and while I enjoyed Aparicio's breakthrough turn in Roma, I think I'll have to go with Lady Gaga's performance in A Star Is Born as my "should win". Ironically in less makeup than her usual singing career, Gaga vanishes into Ally Mane and evokes a girl next door charm that slowly evolves into something stronger, but sadder before ending it with a gut punch final shot. *'Snubbed': Possibly the single best performance in any film this year, Toni Colette's turn as a matriarch struggling to cope with the unraveling of her family after a tragedy in Hereditary was a vicious, powerful turn that left you alternating between sitting at the edge of your seat and wincing while covering your eyes as she embodies a full run of emotions from terror to rage to outright depression. Best Supporting Actor The nominees are... *Mahershala Ali - Green Book *Adam Driver - BlacKKKlansman *Sam Elliott - A Star is Born *Richard E. Grant - Can You Ever Forgive Me? *Sam Rockwell - Vice Cfp's Thoughts *'Prediction:' Honestly, this is a deceptively close race. Although Mahershala Ali has garnered several important victories under his belt to cement his status- the SAG Award, Golden Globe, Critics' Choice, and a healthy dosage of critics awards- there's also the factor of his previous, recent Oscar on his mantle and Richard E. Grant's flawlessly charming campaign so far. BAFTA will likely swing Grant as well, but ultimately I'll stick with the mainstream bet of Mahershala Ali to win his second ala Christoph Waltz. *'Preference:' No, I haven't seen his film; no, I don't care because Richard E. Grant has been effortlessly charming and suave on the awards circuit and, combined with his extensive career so far, I want to reward him for work that many have already lauded. *'Snubbed:' There are very few paternal role models in filmmaking, especially in African-American communities, so it's incredibly disappointing to not reward the outstanding Russel Hornsby for his shattering and powerful display of strong male guidance and humility in The Hate U Give. While he may not win my personal ballot, he's a close runner-up all the same and arguably the more important choice. Beast's Thoughts *'Prediction': This is a tougher race than it looks at first glance, but something tells me that if a surprise is gonna happen anywhere tonight, it'll happen here. Sure, Mahershala Ali seems like the chalk bet, with most of the precursors and critics circles in his corners, but something tells me the Academy might not be willing to sleep on rewarding a veteran, especially one as charming and delightful in his awards circuit tour like Richard E. Grant. *'Preference': No complaints here. Richard E. Grant is a terrific actor, and his immensely charming twitter presence has been one of the best parts of this awards season, meaning his victory speech would be one of the most delightful moments of the night. *'Snubbed': While he only ranks third on my ballot, it's immensely frustrating to watch yet another great performance from Michael B. Jordan get ignored. His take on Erik Killmonger was one of the Marvel Cinematic Universe's all-time great performances, a powerhouse of intensity and rage that hides an inner tragedy. In a year where Black Panther was showered with accolades, it would've been nice to see that translate to a nomination here. Best Supporting Actress The nominees are... *Amy Adams - Vice *Marina de tavira - Roma *Regina King - If Beale Street Could Talk *Emma Stone - The Favourite *Rachel Weisz - The Favourite Cfp's Thoughts *'Prediction:' Regina King has been the frontrunner for a very, very longtime- she's got the slew of critics awards, she's been lovely on the circuit, she's got the Golden Globe and Critics Choice, and she's long overdue. And yet, she's missing SAG and BAFTA, the two voting bodies where she was among her peers. But when the other three nominees were at SAG and didn't win, that leaves one contender; Marina de Tavira, the surprise WTF nominee that I just have the strongest gut feeling towards. The Academy's love for Roma combined with her surprise inclusion gives her the fuel to squeeze through the middle of King and Adams. *'Preference:' As much as I hate The Favourite, Rachel Weisz is absolutely delightful in her venomous and macabre viciousness towards her co-stars. Weisz's villainy is so infectiously charming in its own twisted way that she manages to make The Favourite the least hateable Yorgos Lanthimos film in his filmography of dumpster fires committed to celluloid, where he puts in the most effort possible to disgust, distract, pound away at, or every other form of mental excruciating torture possible when one watches his films. What was I saying again? Oh yeah; Go Weisz. *'Snubbed:' The hypocrisy of Hollywood will never cease to amaze; while we certainly want more diverse casts that logic seems only to apply to African-Americans. I do not fault Regina King for this, but it's absurd that Michelle Yeoh has the same track of performances and overdue status of King but not also be rewarded with the nomination for her delectable work in Crazy Rich Asians. Beast's Thoughts *'Prediction:' While there's a decent argument for why any of these nominees (save, perhaps, Emma Stone) could win, and the precursors have been surprisingly unhelpful in showcasing any clear frontrunner, but something tells me the overdue status and the limited precursor wins of Regina King will propel her to a victory here. *'Preference:' The nomination of Marina de Tavira was a very nice surprise during an otherwise disappointing announcement, and given that her performance is one of Roma's strongest aspects, it would be a very pleasant outcome to see her underdog status take her all the way to the stage on Oscar night. *'Snubbed:' There were several places where First Reformed was ignored, and the least surprising was the ignorance of the performance of Amanda Seyfried, who quietly embodies both traumatic loss and forbidden attraction all through expression rather than any exposition. It's subtle, career-best work, meaning it was largely ignored this entire season. Best Original Screenplay The nominees are... *''The Favourite'' - Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara *''First Reformed'' - Paul Schrader *''Green Book'' - Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Haynes Curie *''Roma'' - Alfonso Cuaron *''Vice'' - Adam McKay Cfp's Thoughts *'Prediction:' With admittedly snappy dialogue and flashes of absurd brilliance, The Favourite is the kind of screenplay that possesses "clever" dialogue, "fast-paced" conversations, and "original" ideas that also has some powerful precursors on its side including the BAFTA prize. It wasn't eligible at the Writers Guild, which went to the not-nominated Eighth Grade. At least I can relish that the first Yorgos film to win screenplay is the one he didn't write. *'Preference:' I don't have any strong passion for any of the films except that The Favourite loses, but that's probably not happening. I guess I'll go with Green Book, since I know it'd make most of the fans of The Favourite mad and is the only one nominated that I genuinely like. *'Snubbed:' This was a weaker year for this category, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't rooting for Tamara Jenkins and her fascinating, powerful portrayal of middle age in Private Life that sings with wit and actual originality. Beast's Thoughts *'Prediction': One of several contests from this year in which precursors have been no help at all, there's a decent case to be made for each of these nominees. Even First Reformed, the only nominee here without a Best Picture nomination, won the Critics Choice award, a precursor that has accurately predicted the winner for the past 8 years. Of course, I've got a gut feeling that we'll see a break from tradition here, as the acclaimed, absurd script for The Favourite seems like just too ripe an opportunity to pass up. *'Preference': There's a lot of places that First Reformed deserves a nod, from the acting spots for Hawke and Seyfried to the beautiful, almost suffocating Cinematography to an outright shot at Best Picture, but it looks like the only chance to reward the film will be here, where it would be great to see the Academy stick with Critic's Choice tradition and reward Schrader, who crafted a character study of faith, tragedy, and apocalyptic dread. *'Snubbed': One of the most frustrating snubs of the entire awards season, Sorry to Bother You should've been this year's Get Out: an exciting debut that tackled issues of race and class through a surreal lens. Instead, it was effectively slept on, never getting the momentum it needed to give us our chance at seeing Boots Riley take to the stage in a silk bathrobe and decry the Oscars as capitalist nonsense. One can dream, I suppose. Best Adapted Screenplay The nominees are... *''The Ballad of Buster Scruggs'' - Joel Coen, Ethan Coen *''BlacKKKlansman'' - Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel, Kevin Willmot *''Can You Ever Forgive?'' - Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty *''If Beale Street Could Talk'' - Barry Jenkins *''A Star is Born'' - Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, and Will Fetters Cfp's Thoughts *'Prediction:' With an overdue factor hanging over him like a cloud, Spike Lee and his BlacKKKlansman stand a very strong chance of winning this award. The film's picked up several minor precursors as well as the BAFTA, while the USC Scripter ended up going to a film not nominated here. Everyone wants Spike to win an Oscar, and this is the easiest way to do so. *'Preference:' Like many others I also want Spike Lee to win an Oscar, and thus for the first time I'm going with my prediction of BlacKKKlansman. None of the five nominees made my ballot but BlacKKKlansman came very close with its powerful story, realistic characters, and inspiring message. *'Snubbed:' Comic book movies never get rewarded in this industry, which is a shame especially for such a monumental force like Black Panther. It's tale about race, isolationism, peacekeeping, and responsibility that serves as an indictment of radicalism of any one way of thinking, while also being an engaging superhero story. Beast's Thoughts *'Prediction': After a brief period of suspense, there doesn't really seem to be anything that can stop Spike Lee from winning a long overdue award from BlacKKKlansman. He's got the precursors behind him, he's got the acclaim, and I rather doubt the Academy voters in this day and age won't want Spike Lee to make a speech. *'Preference': While I certainly wouldn't be opposed to a Spike Lee win, my pick would have to Ballad of Buster Scruggs, the rare anthology film that actually manages to remain consistent in quality. It verges from the usual Coen tropes of dark comedy and crime capers to unexpected tales of love and horror, and it never manages to overstay it's welcome. *'Snubbed': The Academy's bias against genre, indie, and animation was especially prevalent this year, and no category felt that this year quite like the screenplays did. There were numerous films I'd put in both, but the most unfortunately ignored film here was Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse, which managed to perfectly embody the spirit of Spider-Man and retell the origin in a way that felt inspired with a tremendous amount of humor and heart. Best Director The nominees are... *Alfonso Cuaron - Roma *Yorgos Lanthimos - The Favourite *Spike Lee - BlacKKKlansman *Adam McKay - Vice *Pawl Pawilowski - Cold War Cfp's Thoughts *'Prediction:' He has the DGA, the Golden Globe, the Critics Choice, the BAFTA, the LAFCA, and the NYFCC; he directed, edited, shot, produced, and wrote it; Alfonso Cuaron as this as locked as you can call it. *'Preference:' Again, I want Spike Lee to win an Oscar very badly. He's always been a stronger filmmaker than screenwriter, and this wouldn't just be the career win but a worthy winner to watch Spike be claimed as the powerful talent behind the camera that he is. *'Snubbed:' A year after #MeToo, and once again not a single female director. Decry all you want that social agenda, which I would do in any other year, but not in a year when magnificence like Josie Rourke for Mary Queen of Scots was offered. Her direction is elegant, stylish, and slick, and rewarding her portrayal of flawed but powerful women in power would've been a great chance for some quality inclusion. Beast's Thoughts *'Prediction': He's got every precursor under his belt, he's got those Netflix dollars behind him, and he's got the credit of building this entire film on his own. This is easily the safest bet of the night: Alfonso Cuaron is bringing home the gold. *'Preference': Sometimes an awards season as slapdash and wild as this one gets it right. Alfonso Cuaron's direction of Roma is powerful, epic, and intimate all at once, and you can really feel how much of a labor of love it is in every frame. For once, it'll be nice to a previous winner take the stage. *'Snubbed:' Try and think of a movie this year that was as visually gorgeous and exciting to watch as Into the Spiderverse, and remember that so much of that owes to the coordination and direction of it's talented trio of Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, and Rodney Rothman, who oversaw almost four years of work to make one of the best animated films ever. Best Picture The nominees are... *''Black Panther'' (Marvel Studios) *''BlacKKKlansman'' (Focus Features) *''Bohemian Rhapsody'' (20th Century Fox) *''The Favourite'' (Fox Searchlight Pictures) *''Green Book'' (Universal) *''Roma'' (Netflix) *''A Star is Born'' (Warner Bros. Pictures) *''Vice'' (Annapurna) Cfp's Thoughts *'Prediction:' Insanely difficult to predict, with any of these eight films with exception to Vice, Black Panther and Bohemian Rhapsody having a feasible shot at victory. BlacKKKlansman is receiving a swell of support as a well-liked contender in all branches, while A Star is Born is similarly going to play out decently in a lot of places. However, the two frontrunners were Roma and Green Book, and there are many detractors on both sides. Roma will require a significant portion of number one votes to surpass the old guard, while Green Book plays it far too safe and with far too much controversy to usher in the new Academy. I hate to say it, but with a screenplay, production design, and possible acting upsets on the line, I'm predicting Fox Searchlight to win again with The Favourite- a horrible, ugly film that somehow everyone likes. *'Preference:' This award season has been a disaster, from the messy Oscar build-up campaign to the lack of any strong nominees outside of the immaculate A Star is Born. Although my head says go with the best film, my heart wants to plant its flag down and say Black Panther should get the ultimate prize. No other film nominated has encapsulated 2018 like Black Panther, and if the Best Picture is supposed to represent the year in film, then I can think of no better ambassador. *'Snubbed:' Creators of color and underrepresented communities were absolutely on fire this year. Barry Jenkins brought James Baldwin back to life with If Beale Street Could Talk, Steve McQueen reinvigorated the heist thriller with Widows, and Josie Rourke was phenomenal in recreating medieval times in Mary Queen of Scots. However, nothing is a banner quite like Jon M. Chu's staggering achievement in filmmaking Crazy Rich Asians, featuring a dynamic cast, vivacious visual design, and a riveting tale about class and love. Beast's Thoughts *'Prediction:' An incredibly odd crop of nominees, and some could argue that this is the weakest Best Picture lineup since 2011, but there's an argument for each of them to pull off a Best Picture win. Of course, this is in reality a three horse race between Roma, Green Book, and The Favourite. Green Book, an early favorite, seems likely to have fallen apart in the final stretch, despite it's initially Trumpian ability to dodge controversy, and I still don't think the Academy will embrace something as odd as The Favourite, leaving Roma to pick up the title. Despite naysayers and Academy aversion to Netflix, it seems increasingly likely that this could be the only choice to win without controversy. *'Preference:' When this season it started, it really looked like we had a clear, unchallenged frontrunner, and as it ends I still think it should've gone that way. A Star is Born is everything the awards crowds should've loved: a gorgeous, heartbreaking love story about the struggles of artists featuring some career-best performances and fantastic music. Instead, it was robbed of the vital legs it needed by blatant Golden Globes fuckery, consigning it to one of the most brutally disappointing final showings in recent memory. *'Snubbed:' An incredible year for genre and indie filmmaking and, with the exception of Black Panther, the Academy turns it's nose to it once again. Fans of horror had the family drama turned haunted house thriller Hereditary or the nightmarish, surreal Mandy, sci-fi junkies got to witness the cosmic thrills Annihilation, we witnessed the all-time great animation feats of Into the Spiderverse and smaller, artsier crowds got the likes of the toxic character study First Reformed and, in the most painful snub of the season, Sorry to Bother You, a brilliant, visually unique, well-acted, and wildly entertaining satire with one of the boldest twists in years. Well, there's always next year, I guess. Category:Blog posts Category:Predictions